MERIDIAN RESEARCH

The macro setup heading into today is defined by two cross-currents. First, Fed Chair Powell is convening what is reportedly his final FOMC meeting (source: NPR via Google News, 4/30/26), with Fed funds currently at 3.64% (FRED). The 2s/10s curve sits at +52bp (10Y 4.36%, 2Y 3.84% — FRED), a normalized but still cautious shape implying the market expects modest further easing but not an imminent recession. Credit conditions remain benign: HY spreads at 285bp (FRED) are well inside historical stress thresholds (>500bp). Unemployment at 4.3% and real GDP growth at 2.0% (FRED) describe a mid-cycle, not late-cycle, economy. The leadership transition risk at the Fed is non-trivial — a new Chair could reset the reaction function, particularly relevant for rate-sensitive holdings (RYAN, ITUB, FICO, real-asset proxies).

Second, oil prices are spiking with gas prices at new highs (source: NBC News Morning Rundown, 4/30/26; corroborated by IBD's mention of "oil prices jump"). This is the single most important short-term macro variable today because CPI YoY data was not reported in this morning's pull (FRED feed null), meaning we cannot yet verify whether inflation is re-accelerating. An energy-led CPI re-acceleration would directly threaten the Fed's easing trajectory and pressure long-duration assets (DDOG, NET, CRWD, TTD, MDB). Conversely, energy producers and pipeline-adjacent names benefit. The Druzhba pipeline targeting by Ukraine (FICO news feed cross-reference) is an additional supply-side catalyst worth monitoring.

Third, earnings season cross-currents: SoFi tumbling despite doubling EPS (Yahoo Finance, IBD) is a tell — the market is punishing forward guidance, not backward results. This raises the bar for our fintech-adjacent names (HOOD, FOUR) reporting in coming weeks. Separately, the $24B Otis/KONE-style elevator deal (WSJ, 4/30/26) signals industrial M&A appetite is back, which I'm noting as a tailwind read-through for AAON (specialty industrials, sub-scale relative to majors).

HIGH-CONVICTION (RECOMMEND tier):

• MSFT (8/10) — 1M +14.67%, 1W +2.1%. FQ3 earnings ahead with Wall Street bullish positioning (source: portfolio news feed). Job reduction news (Microsoft, Meta) is margin-accretive, not thesis-negative — consistent with the AI-driven productivity pivot underlying my thesis. No conviction change.

• NVDA (8/10) — 1M +19.98%, 1W +4.81%. The "Semiconductor Bubble Goes Nuclear" headline (ADBE news feed cross-reference) and "Are Investors Losing Faith" piece are sentiment noise; primary data (revenue trajectory, hyperscaler capex commitments per public 10-K filings of MSFT/META/GOOG) remains intact. Monitoring for any deceleration in next earnings print. No conviction change.

• MELI (7/10) — 1W -2.33%, 1M +2.2%. No news flow today. Thesis (Latam e-commerce + fintech flywheel) intact. No change.

ACTIVELY MONITORED — Notable moves:

• CSGP (6/10) — 1M -15.37%, 1W -8.67%. Two news items flagging "AI Fears Hurt CoStar Group in Q1." This is the largest 1-month drawdown in our coverage. Action: I am pulling the Q1 transcript and AI-disruption discussion before the next brief. Until I can quantify whether AI threat to CoStar's data moat is real or narrative, conviction held at 6/10 but flagged for potential downgrade.

• AAON (6/10) — 1W -12.4%. No news to explain the move. Industrial M&A read-through (WSJ elevator deal) is a mild positive. Need to check earnings calendar — likely an earnings reaction. Holding 6/10 pending data.

• KTOS (5/10) — 1M -15.53%, 1W -9.1%. No news. Defense small-cap weakness without a catalyst is a yellow flag. Holding 5/10 — monitoring for fundamental deterioration vs. multiple compression.

• LLY (7/10) — 1M -7.45%, 1W -7.24%. No company-specific negative news in feed; pipeline reports referenced are routine market research. Likely GLP-1 sentiment rotation. Thesis unchanged. Holding 7/10.

• CRWD (6/10) — 1M +15.87%. Cramer endorsement and "Best Tech Stocks for the Next Decade" listicle are sentiment-driven, not thesis-confirming. I am not raising conviction on retail-flow news. Holding 6/10.

• MEDP (5/10) — Three separate securities fraud lawsuit notices in news feed. This is a material escalation. Class action suits are not necessarily thesis-killers, but combined with the prior red flags I noted at initiation, I am formally flagging MEDP for potential removal from watchlist pending review of the underlying allegations.

• HOOD (6/10) — 1W -14.77%. SoFi tumbling on a "good" earnings print (IBD) is a relevant comp. Need to assess whether HOOD faces the same forward-guidance pressure when it reports. Holding but cautious.

• FICO (5/10) — Mizuho initiated Outperform, "market overreacted" (news feed). Cross-checking against my prior thesis flagging Fannie/Freddie regulatory risk: Mizuho's call does not address the structural risk I flagged. Holding 5/10. Analyst rating ≠ thesis confirmation.

All other monitored names: no material new data; theses unchanged.

No new initiations today. Pipeline is at 33 names monitored, 3 at RECOMMEND tier — well within the 10-12 high-conviction cap. Capacity exists to upgrade existing monitored names with conviction; I am prioritizing deeper work on BRK-B (currently 7/10) and KNSL (currently 7/10) for potential upgrade to RECOMMEND tier given their relative resilience and quality factor exposure in a potentially choppier macro setup.

I am also adding to the passive watchlist any beneficiaries of an energy supply-shock regime (not formally initiating coverage today, just flagging for screening): integrated energy majors, midstream pipelines, and specialty chemicals with pricing power. Will report findings in next brief.

• CPI data gap (FRED null today) — We cannot verify whether the oil spike is feeding through to headline inflation. If next CPI print shows YoY re-acceleration above 3.0%, expect duration-sensitive names (DDOG, NET, MDB, CRWD, TTD) to underperform. Actionable trigger: monitor next CPI release.

• MEDP securities fraud litigation — Three law firms publicly soliciting lead plaintiffs is unusual volume. Trigger for removal: if underlying complaint alleges revenue recognition or backlog disclosure issues, I will exit coverage.

• CSGP AI-disruption narrative — Two analyst pieces flagging the same risk in one day suggests a thesis is forming. CoStar's moat depends on proprietary data that AI scrapers may erode. Trigger for downgrade: confirmation of customer churn or pricing pressure on next earnings call.

• Powell transition risk — A more dovish or more hawkish successor than market expects could reprice the curve. ITUB (Brazilian bank, sensitive to USD/EM dynamics) and rate-sensitive financials (RYAN, FICO) carry elevated risk through the transition.

• Spirit Airlines structural failure (NPR) — Read-through: low-cost disruption models without scale economics get crushed by incumbents. Reinforces my preference for scale leaders (COST, MELI, MSFT) over disruptors lacking moat (relevant lens for evaluating CELH, CAVA going forward).

• AAON unexplained -12.4% week — Will not abandon thesis on price action alone (per Hard Rule #7), but data review required.