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Conviction
Convictions
July 10, 2026 — 50 positions tracked
0
High Conviction
Highest confidence positions
8
Recommend
Solid thesis, strong signal
40
Monitoring
Watching for confirmation
52
Watchlist
On radar, not yet researched
Recommend
NOW
Technology
8
/ 10
—
Recommend
Fund
9
Val
7
Macro
8
Dur
8
# Equity Research Update: ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE: NOW) **Date:** 2026-07-06 | **Prior Thesis:** Watchlist, Conviction 5/10 (2026-05-11) → **UPGRADING to RECOMMEND, Conviction 8/10** --- ## WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST REVIEW Since my 5/11/2026 note (conviction 5/10, watchlist), the setup has meani
NVDA
Technology
8
/ 10
—
Recommend
Fund
10
Val
6
Macro
9
Dur
8
# NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — Equity Research Update **Update Date:** 2026-07-06 | **Prior Thesis:** 2026-04-26 (watchlist, 5/10) | **Current Price:** $197.82 | **Market Cap:** $4.79T --- ## WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST THESIS The prior thesis (April 2026) placed NVDA on watchlist at 5/10 convicti
TSM
Technology
8
/ 10
—
Recommend
Fund
10
Val
5
Macro
9
Dur
9
# Equity Research Update: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) **Date:** Current Update | **Price:** $435.33 | **Market Cap:** $2.26T **Prior Thesis Date:** 2026-05-13 | **Prior Status:** Watchlist, Conviction 5/10 **Price Change Since Prior Thesis:** +0.3% (essentially flat) **Note on dat
ADBE
Technology
7
/ 10
—
Recommend
Fund
9
Val
9
Macro
5
Dur
6
# Adobe Inc. (ADBE) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Analyst:** Senior Equity Research | **Date:** 2026-07-07 | **Price:** $225.56 | **Mkt Cap:** $89.7B **Prior Thesis Date:** 2026-04-26 | **Prior Status:** Abandoned (5/10) --- ## WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE PRIOR THESIS The prior thesis was aban
MSFT
Technology
7
/ 10
—
Recommend
Fund
9
Val
6
Macro
8
Dur
8
# Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Date of Review:** Current cycle | **Price:** $392.63 | **Market Cap:** $2.92T | **Prior Thesis Date:** 2026-04-26 | **Prior Status:** Watchlist (Conviction 5/10) --- ## WHAT'S CHANGED SINCE LAST REVIEW Since the April 2026 revie
MELI
Consumer Cyclical
7
/ 10
—
Recommend
Fund
8
Val
6
Macro
7
Dur
8
# Equity Research: MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) **Analyst Note — Thesis Reinstatement:** The prior thesis was abandoned on 2026-04-26 at conviction 5/10 due to a persistent drawdown (-33.7% 1Y at the time) combined with concerns about FCF turning negative on aggressive fintech credit book expa
ANET
Technology
7
/ 10
—
Recommend
Fund
9
Val
6
Macro
8
Dur
7
# Arista Networks (ANET) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Update note vs. prior thesis (2026-05-07):** Since my last update (conviction 7/10, "recommend"), the stock is roughly flat-to-down on a 1-week basis (-0.58%) but down ~15% over the past month. Two incremental positive datapoints this we
FCX
Basic Materials
6
/ 10
—
Recommend
Fund
7
Val
5
Macro
8
Dur
7
# Equity Research Update: Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) **Analyst:** Senior Equity Research | **Date:** 2026-05-26 **Prior Thesis Date:** 2026-05-10 | **Prior Conviction:** 6/10 (Recommend) --- ## WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST THESIS (May 10, 2026) 1. **Price action:** Stock up ~9.6% over the last we
Monitoring
ISRG
Healthcare
7
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
9
Val
5
Macro
8
Dur
9
# Equity Research Update: Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) **Date of Analysis:** Q3 2026 | **Current Price:** $426.03 | **Prior Status:** Watchlist (5/10) → **Updated Status: Monitoring (7/10)** **What has changed since prior thesis (May 2026):** The stock has drifted modestly lower (~$432
GOOG
Communication Services
7
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
9
Val
5
Macro
8
Dur
8
# Equity Research Update: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) **Update Note:** Prior thesis (2026-05-13) rated GOOG at 5/10, status "watchlist." Since then, the stock has continued to climb (+~13% from ~$325 area to $366), sitting only ~9% below its 5-year high of $404.47. New signals warrant re-rating: (i) Gemin
AVGO
Technology
7
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
9
Val
4
Macro
9
Dur
7
# AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Update Note:** Prior thesis (2026-05-07) was held at "monitoring / 7-conviction." Eight days later, the stock has advanced toward the 52-week high ($442.36), and the broader chip complex experienced a sell-off on rising yields (per Financi
KNSL
Financial Services
7
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
8
Val
7
Macro
6
Dur
7
# Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Date of Analysis:** Current | **Price:** $311.29 | **Market Cap:** $7.2B **Prior Thesis:** Monitoring | Conviction 7/10 (dated 2026-04-26 at $345.08) --- ## WHAT'S CHANGED SINCE LAST THESIS - **Price declined ~9.8%** from $345.0
VEEV
Healthcare
7
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
9
Val
7
Macro
6
Dur
8
# Equity Research Analysis: Veeva Systems Inc. (NYSE: VEEV) **Analyst Note:** No prior thesis on VEEV exists in the database. This is an initiation analysis. --- ## 1. THESIS SUMMARY Veeva Systems is the dominant vertical SaaS provider to the global life sciences industry. Its product portfolio
BRK-B
Financial Services
7
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
9
Val
6
Macro
6
Dur
8
# Equity Research Update: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B) **Update Date:** 2026-05-13 | **Prior Thesis Date:** 2026-04-27 | **Prior Status:** Monitoring (7/10) --- ## What Has Changed Since Prior Thesis Minimal fundamental change in the ~2 weeks since the inaugural thesis. Key observations: - **P
TDG
Industrials
7
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
9
Val
5
Macro
7
Dur
9
# TransDigm Group (TDG) — Equity Research Analysis **Analyst Note:** No prior thesis exists in the database for TDG. This is an initiation note. All fundamental data sourced from yfinance/SEC EDGAR as provided; news flow from the supplied feed appears largely irrelevant to TDG (Bacolod regional new
FSLR
Technology
7
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
8
Val
6
Macro
7
Dur
6
# Equity Research Update: First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) **Analyst:** Senior Equity Research | **Date:** Q2 2026 | **Price:** $234.60 | **Mkt Cap:** $25.2B **Prior Thesis Date:** 2026-05-02 ($211.71, Conviction 7/10, Monitoring) --- ## WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST THESIS 1. **Price action:** St
AAPL
Technology
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
9
Val
3
Macro
6
Dur
8
# Equity Research Analysis: Apple Inc. (AAPL) — Thesis Update **Analyst Note:** This is an update to the 2026-05-13 initiation thesis (prior status: monitoring, 7/10). Since that report, the stock has rallied further to $313.39, near the 5-year high of $317.40. Fundamentals have strengthened modest
MP
Basic Materials
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
5
Val
3
Macro
9
Dur
7
# MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Prior Thesis Status:** Watchlist (5/10) — dated 2026-05-10 (prior update noted High Conviction 7/10 was under review post-run-up) **Current Update Date:** 2026-07-06 **Recommendation:** DOWNGRADE from prior conviction reads → **Mo
PH
Industrials
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
8
Val
4
Macro
8
Dur
8
# Equity Research Analysis: Parker-Hannifin Corporation (NYSE: PH) — THESIS UPDATE **Prior status: Watchlist (5/10, 2026-05-30) → Updated status: Monitoring (6/10)** **What has changed since last thesis:** - Stock has risen from prior levels to $951.38, now within ~8% of the 5-year/all-time high o
COHR
Technology
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
6
Val
3
Macro
9
Dur
7
# COHR (Coherent Corp.) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Prior thesis date:** 2026-05-10 | **Prior status:** Watchlist | **Prior conviction:** 5/10 **Current price:** $313.92 | **52W range:** $84.35–$440.00 | **1Y return:** +256.5% **Change from prior:** Stock down ~13% from prior review ($361 →
MU
Technology
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
7
Val
6
Macro
8
Dur
5
# MICRON TECHNOLOGY (MU) — UPDATED EQUITY RESEARCH NOTE **Date of Update:** 2026-07-07 **Prior Thesis Date:** 2026-05-10 | **Prior Status:** Watchlist (5/10) **Current Price:** $930.93 | **Market Cap:** $1.05T | **52W Range:** $103.38–$1,255.00 --- ## WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST THESIS - **Price
ETN
Industrials
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
8
Val
3
Macro
9
Dur
8
# Eaton Corporation plc (NYSE: ETN) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Update Note:** Prior thesis (2026-05-07) was "watchlist" at 5/10 conviction. Since then, the stock has declined ~5.9% (from ~$418 to $393.68), reflecting the -7.61% weekly drop. Fundamentals appear unchanged: revenue growth re
ESTC
Technology
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
6
Val
6
Macro
7
Dur
6
# Equity Research Update: Elastic N.V. (NYSE: ESTC) **Analyst:** Senior Equity Research | **Price:** $61.18 | **Mkt Cap:** $6.4B **Prior Thesis Status:** Watchlist (5/10) at $61.79 — UPDATING to Monitoring (6/10) **What's changed since prior thesis:** Marginal improvement in conviction driven by (
CSCO
Technology
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
8
Val
4
Macro
7
Dur
7
# Equity Research Update: Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) **Analyst:** Senior Equity Research, Stock Recommendation App **Date:** Current Update | **Prior Thesis:** 2026-05-07, Watchlist, Conviction 5/10 **Current Price:** $112.63 | **Market Cap:** $443.9B --- ## WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE PRIOR THESIS S
APPF
Technology
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
8
Val
5
Macro
6
Dur
7
# Equity Research Update: AppFolio, Inc. (NASDAQ: APPF) **Analyst:** Senior Equity Research **Prior Thesis on File:** 2026-05-07 — Watchlist, Conviction 5/10 **This Update:** Upgrading to "Monitoring" — Conviction 6/10 --- ## WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE PRIOR THESIS Three material developments since
PDD
Consumer Cyclical
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
8
Val
9
Macro
4
Dur
5
# PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: PDD) — Equity Research Update **Update note:** Prior thesis (2026-05-07) had PDD on "watchlist / 5 conviction" following a regulatory-driven drawdown. Since then, the stock has stabilized around $82.52 (from $81.30), showing a +8.18% weekly bounce but still -21.6% year-over-
PGNY
Healthcare
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
7
Val
7
Macro
5
Dur
5
# Equity Research Update: Progyny, Inc. (PGNY) — Monitoring (Conviction 6/10) **Analyst Note — What's Changed Since Prior Thesis (2026-05-09):** The stock has continued its rally, now at $31.02 vs. $26.63 at the last update (+16.5%), breaking through the prior 52-week high ($28.75) to a new 52-week
LLY
Healthcare
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
9
Val
3
Macro
9
Dur
8
# Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Update Note:** This updates the prior thesis dated 2026-04-26 (status: watchlist, conviction: 5/10). Since that review, LLY has continued its climb from ~$1,199 to $1,229 (+2.5%), and now sits within 2% of its all-time high of $1,24
GRAB
Technology
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
6
Val
4
Macro
8
Dur
7
# Equity Research Analysis: Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: GRAB) — Thesis Update **Update Note:** This is an update to the 2026-05-12 thesis (Status: watchlist, Conviction 5/10). Key changes since last update: (1) Stock has rallied +18.4% in the last month, closing some of the valuation gap to anal
UUUU
Energy
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
5
Val
3
Macro
9
Dur
6
# Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU) — Updated Equity Research Note **Date of Update:** 2026-05-26 **Prior Thesis Date:** 2026-05-10 | Prior Status: Monitoring (6/10) **Current Price:** $18.35 | **52W Range:** $4.82 – $27.90 | **1Y Return:** +236.7% --- ## 1. THESIS SUMMARY Energy Fuels Inc. is a U.S.-bas
TSLA
Consumer Cyclical
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
6
Val
2
Macro
7
Dur
6
# TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Date of update:** 2026-05-21 **Prior thesis date:** 2026-05-10 (monitoring, conviction 6/10) --- ## 1. THESIS SUMMARY Tesla designs, manufactures, and sells battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and energy storage/generation systems globally, w
AFRM
Financial Services
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
7
Val
5
Macro
7
Dur
6
# AFRM (Affirm Holdings, Inc.) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Update Note:** Prior thesis (2026-05-11) had AFRM at "monitoring" with conviction 6/10. This update incorporates the Royal Caribbean partnership announcement (5/20/2026), recent 8-K filing (5/7/2026, presumably earnings-related), a
SYM
Industrials
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
6
Val
3
Macro
8
Dur
6
# Symbotic Inc. (SYM) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Date of update:** Following prior thesis dated 2026-05-10 (status: monitoring, conviction 6/10) --- ## 1. THESIS SUMMARY Symbotic designs, builds, and deploys end-to-end warehouse automation systems — autonomous mobile robots, software, a
GEV
Industrials
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
8
Val
3
Macro
9
Dur
8
# Equity Research Update: GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) **Analyst:** Senior Equity Research | **Date:** Q2 2026 **Prior Thesis on File:** 2026-05-07 — Monitoring, Conviction 6/10 **Update Trigger:** Q1 2026 earnings beat + guidance raise; ~4% price pullback over last week despite strong print --- ## WHAT
CPRT
Industrials
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
8
Val
7
Macro
7
Dur
7
# Equity Research Analysis: Copart, Inc. (CPRT) **Analyst Note:** No prior thesis on CPRT exists in the database. This is an initiation analysis. --- ## 1. THESIS SUMMARY Copart operates the world's largest online auction platform for salvage and used vehicles, serving insurance companies (its c
DE
Industrials
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
8
Val
5
Macro
6
Dur
7
# Deere & Company (DE) — Equity Research Analysis **Prior Thesis Check:** No prior thesis on file for DE. This is an initial coverage analysis. --- ## 1. THESIS SUMMARY Deere & Company is the global leader in agricultural machinery and a top-three player in construction/forestry equipment, with
VST
Utilities
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
6
Val
6
Macro
9
Dur
6
# Equity Research Analysis: Vistra Corp. (VST) **Analyst:** Senior Equity Research | **Date of Analysis:** Current **Prior Thesis:** None on file — this is an initiation note. --- ## 1. THESIS SUMMARY Vistra Corp. is an integrated independent power producer (IPP) and retail electricity provider
UNH
Healthcare
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
7
Val
5
Macro
7
Dur
6
# UnitedHealth Group (UNH) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Prior Thesis Check:** Prior thesis dated 2026-05-14 had UNH at **monitoring / 6 conviction**. The stock has since rallied **+27.7% in 1 month and +8.5% in 1 week**, recovering from the 52W low of $234.60 to $401.16 — essentially the 52
BABA
Consumer Cyclical
6
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
6
Val
8
Macro
5
Dur
5
# Equity Research Update: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) **Update Context:** Updating prior thesis (2026-05-14, monitoring, 6/10). Key new data point: Alibaba reports earnings May 13 (per Barchart, 2026-05-12), and news flow indicates "Alibaba stock falls" on May 11 (Yahoo, 2026-05-11). Price
LITE
Technology
5
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
6
Val
3
Macro
8
Dur
6
# Lumentum Holdings (LITE) — Updated Equity Research Note **Date of Update:** 2026-07-07 **Prior Thesis:** 2026-05-10 (monitoring, 5/10) **Current Recommendation:** Monitoring, 5/10 — maintained but with material observations on insider selling and valuation compression risk. --- ## WHAT HAS CHAN
CIEN
Technology
5
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
6
Val
2
Macro
9
Dur
6
# CIENA CORPORATION (CIEN) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Date of Update:** 2026-07-10 | **Prior Thesis Date:** 2026-05-10 | **Prior Status:** Abandoned (5/10) **What has changed since the prior thesis:** The prior thesis was abandoned at a 5/10 conviction. Since then, the stock has continued
GLW
Technology
5
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
6
Val
3
Macro
8
Dur
6
# Corning Incorporated (GLW) — Updated Equity Research Analysis **Date of Update:** July 2026 **Prior Thesis Date:** May 10, 2026 → Updated May 28, 2026 | **Prior Conviction:** 5/10 (Watchlist) **Current Price:** $186.03 | **52W Range:** $51.32 – $271.78 ### WHAT'S CHANGED SINCE LAST UPDATE 1. **P
SPCX
Industrials
5
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
6
Val
2
Macro
9
Dur
8
# SPCX (SpaceX / Starlink) — Equity Research Analysis **Important preliminary note on ticker/data integrity:** The ticker "SPCX" historically refers to the SPAC and New Issue ETF, not SpaceX. SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) is, to the best of my training knowledge, a **privately held
APLD
Technology
5
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
4
Val
3
Macro
9
Dur
5
# APPLIED DIGITAL CORPORATION (APLD) — EQUITY RESEARCH UPDATE **Prior Thesis Status:** Watchlist, 5/10 conviction (2026-06-23) **Updated Status:** Monitoring, 5/10 conviction — modestly more constructive on strategic positioning, but valuation and capital structure risks have grown alongside the st
ENPH
Technology
5
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
5
Val
5
Macro
4
Dur
5
# Equity Research Update: Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) **Status:** Updating prior thesis (2026-05-13, watchlist, 5/10 conviction). Moving to *monitoring* with unchanged 5/10 conviction. Key change since last review: stock has stabilized modestly (+~5% on peer-wide bullish note per 24/7 Wall St., 202
RKLB
Industrials
5
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
7
Val
2
Macro
9
Dur
7
# RKLB (Rocket Lab Corporation) — Updated Equity Research Note **Date of Update:** 2026-05-22 **Prior Thesis Date:** 2026-05-10 (Conviction 7/10, "recommend") **Current Price:** $135.76 | **Market Cap:** $78.6B --- ## WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST THESIS (May 10, 2026) - **Market cap has expan
AVAV
Industrials
5
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
5
Val
4
Macro
9
Dur
7
# AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) — Updated Equity Research Note **Date of Update:** 2026-05 (refresh of 2026-05-10 thesis) **Current Price:** $174.23 | **Prior Thesis Conviction:** 7/10 | **Updated Conviction:** 5/10 **Recommendation Change:** DOWNGRADE from "recommend" to "monitoring" --- ## WHAT'S
MKL
Financial Services
5
/ 10
—
Monitoring
Fund
5
Val
7
Macro
6
Dur
6
# Equity Research Update: Markel Group Inc. (MKL) **Update Note:** Prior thesis (2026-05-14) had MKL on monitoring status with 6/10 conviction. This update reflects new data points: continued price weakness (-8.2% MoM, -4.86% YoY), reported TTM revenue contraction of -16.9%, negative operating marg
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