🧭 MACRO SNAPSHOT
The macro backdrop is benign on the surface but quietly shifting. Fed funds at 3.64% with the 10Y at 4.57% and 2Y at 4.08% gives us a 49bp positive slope — fully un-inverted, which historically is a "clear runway" condition for risk assets (source: FRED). Credit spreads at 2.78% are tight, VIX at 16.76 is sleepy, and the S&P at 7,473 reflects a market that's pricing in continued earnings growth without recession risk. CPI YoY of 3.32% remains stubbornly above target, and that's the key tension: with unemployment at 4.3% and real GDP growing 2.0%, the Fed has no obvious reason to cut aggressively.
The story that matters today is new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaling a Greenspan-style "let the economy breathe" approach (Yahoo/Motley Fool). If Warsh leans more dovish-by-patience than Powell's data-dependence, growth equities and long-duration tech get a tailwind — but the bond market will police him hard if inflation reaccelerates. Separately, hyperscaler 2026 capex was revised from $515B to $740B mid-year, with 2027 penciled at $889B (2.7% of GDP, up from 0.3% in 2019). That's the single most important data point for the entire AI infrastructure book — $ANET, $AVGO, $LITE, $GLW, $COHR, $CIEN, $MRVL, $TSM, $NVDA, $AMD. The bear counterweight (r/stocks "Capex Unwind 2027-28" thesis) is worth tracking but not actionable yet — we likely have 12-18 months of tailwind before the cycle peaks.
₿ BITCOIN DAILY WRITE-UP
Price & Market Structure
Bitcoin sits at $77,355, down 0.5% on the month and essentially flat on the week (+0.61%). We remain 38.7% below the $126,080 ATH and -26.6% YoY. Dominance at 58.3% is holding the structural floor, which is the more important data point than price right now.
Structural Thesis
Bitcoin is held as a long-duration, non-sovereign monetary asset whose demand side has been permanently institutionalized by spot ETFs (BlackRock IBIT, Fidelity FBTC), regulated custody, and corporate treasury adoption. The bull case isn't "number go up" — it's that the floor under the asset has been raised structurally even through drawdowns.
What Happened This Week
No material structural change. The Ethereum Foundation announced it will become a "smaller ship" with researcher exodus quietly underway (top thread on r/CryptoCurrency) — a marginal positive for BTC dominance if ETH credibility erodes. The SEC delayed the tokenized stocks "innovation exemption" (Bitcoin Magazine), a small regulatory negative for the broader crypto-equities crossover narrative but irrelevant to BTC's structural case. No ETF flow data was provided in today's package, which itself is a flag — flows are the single most important monitorable I'm missing.
Bull / Bear Scorecard
Bull:
- Halving supply shock (~450 BTC/day issuance) still working through the system against persistent ETF demand
- Institutional rails (ETFs, custody, corporate treasuries) are permanent — they raise the structural floor
- 2021 May-July precedent: deep mid-cycle drawdown before final leg higher
Bear:
- Cycle may have peaked early at $126K — ETF demand pulled forward later-cycle buying
- 38.7% drawdown 13 months post-halving is not the historical acceleration phase pattern
- TBL newsletter explicitly notes "futures, perps, and skew are still whispering bear market" — derivatives positioning is not confirming a bottom
Conviction Check: Action: HOLD | Conviction: 7/10. Unchanged. The structural case is intact but the cycle-position uncertainty (early peak vs. mid-cycle correction) keeps me from going to 8.
What to Watch
- Spot ETF net flows over next 30 days — sustained outflows >$1B/week would weaken the structural thesis materially
- BTC dominance — break below 55% with weak BTC = broad crypto risk-off; rise through 60%+ on weakness = flight-to-quality (bullish)
- Any Warsh-era policy signal that reframes BTC as a duration asset (lower real rates would be a tailwind)
Community Pulse
The Bitcoin community is in a "patient HODL" mood, not euphoric or panicked. The top r/Bitcoin thread ("LISTEN!" at 380 upvotes) and "Thoughts on 0.5btc?" (162 comments) are accumulation/conviction-check posts — classic mid-drawdown sentiment. More notable is The Bitcoin Layer's "Where are the risk takers?" piece arguing derivatives still signal a bear market, which is at odds with the Bitcoin-backed lending headline (Ledn projecting $1T market in 10 years). Dominant tone: structural bulls quietly accumulating, traders skeptical of an imminent breakout.
🔬 TODAY'S DEEP DIVES
SMAR — Smartsheet Inc. — NEW IDEA (SCREENED, NOT ADDED)
Conviction: 1/10 | Status: Watchlist (not added) | Sector: Technology / Vertical SaaS
WHAT THEY DO: Smartsheet is a collaborative work management SaaS platform — think project management, automation, and team workflows for enterprises. Historically a seat-based subscription model competing with Asana, Monday.com, and Microsoft's bundled offerings (Loop, Planner, Lists).
WHY IT'S INTERESTING NOW: Frankly, it isn't — at least not based on what I can verify today. The data feed returned null on virtually every quantitative field (price, market cap, revenue, margins, multiples, analyst targets, filings, news). Per Hard Rule #2 (every claim must be sourced), I will not fabricate numbers from memory. The null return itself is a flag — possible explanations include a corporate action (Smartsheet was reportedly subject to take-private interest in 2024), ticker change, or a pure data plumbing failure.
BULL CASE: Cannot construct one with zero verifiable data.
BEAR CASE:
- Intense competition from Microsoft bundling compressing pricing power
- Category consolidation risk and slowing seat-based growth in tighter enterprise software spend
- Null data return itself suggests a corporate action (delisting, ticker change) that needs investigation before any thesis work
KEY METRICS: Unavailable.
BOTTOM LINE: Not added to the target list. Conviction 1/10 reflects data integrity, not company quality — I need a fresh data pull and a confirmation of trading status before any real work begins.
RKLB — Rocket Lab Corporation — ROLLING REVIEW (DOWNGRADE)
Conviction: 5/10 (down from 7/10) | Status: Monitoring | Sector: Industrials / Aerospace & Defense
WHAT THEY DO: Rocket Lab is a small-launch and space systems company. Two businesses: (1) Electron, the dominant small-satellite launch vehicle (~$8M per launch ASP), and (2) Space Systems — satellite components, spacecraft buses, and increasingly prime-contractor work for defense/intel customers. The big upcoming catalyst is Neutron, a medium-lift reusable rocket targeting ~$200M+ ASPs — a potential 10x revenue-per-launch step function if it works.
WHY IT'S INTERESTING NOW: The stock has gone parabolic — up 70% in a month and the market cap expanded from ~$61B to $78.6B in 12 days (per yfinance) with zero change in revenue base ($0.7B TTM). The entire move is multiple expansion, riding the SpaceX IPO halo effect (point #1 in today's Daily Pulse — Musk's net worth jumped $45B on the S-1 filing, and the entire space sector is being re-rated). The fundamentals haven't changed; the narrative has.
BULL CASE:
- Neutron first flight and reusability success would unlock ~$200M+ ASP medium-lift market — single biggest catalyst
- Defense/space supercycle is real and accelerating; $90M Space Force GEO contract (GlobeNewswire 2026-05-22) validates prime-contractor scaling
- 9th successful Electron launch for Synspective (operational execution remains best-in-class outside SpaceX)
BEAR CASE:
- Valuation is extreme on any conventional metric: P/S of 115x, P/B of 34.5x, market cap 23% above the sell-side consensus target of $103.91 (16 analysts)
- Stock is pricing Neutron success AND Space Systems scaling AND margin expansion simultaneously — any slip and the multiple compresses violently
- SpaceX IPO halo is a sentiment-driven re-rating, not a fundamental one — this is exactly the kind of momentum chase I'm supposed to be skeptical of
KEY METRICS: TTM Revenue ~$0.7B | P/S 115.6x | P/B 34.5x | Market Cap $78.6B | Consensus PT $103.91 (stock trades 30%+ above PT)
BOTTOM LINE: Downgraded from 7/10 "recommend" to 5/10 "monitoring" — the company is still high-quality, but at this valuation it's a momentum trade, not a long-horizon thesis, and I do not chase multiple expansion that outruns my consensus.
📋 TARGET LIST STATUS
| Ticker | Status | Conviction | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | RECOMMEND | 8/10 | Tech (Optics) |
| NVDA | MONITORING | 8/10 | Semis |
| TSM | MONITORING | 8/10 | Semis |
| MSFT | RECOMMEND | 8/10 | Tech |
| ANET | RECOMMEND | 7/10 | Networking |
| GLW | RECOMMEND | 7/10 | Optical/Fiber |
| AMD | RECOMMEND | 7/10 | Semis |
| FCX | RECOMMEND | 6/10 | Materials |
| MELI | RECOMMEND | 7/10 | LatAm E-comm |
| MP | HIGH_CONVICTION | 7/10 | Rare Earths |
| AVGO, AAPL, GOOG, COHR, LLY, TDG, FSLR, VEEV, KNSL, BRK-B, PDD, APPF | MONITORING | 7/10 | Mixed |
| Remaining ~25 names | MONITORING | 5-6/10 | Mixed |
Conviction changes this week: RKLB downgraded 7→5 (multiple expansion outran fundamentals). AVAV, TSLA, AFRM, SYM, GEV all reaffirmed at prior conviction in 50-day rolling reviews. No names were dropped today — SMAR was screened but failed data integrity and did not earn a spot.
💼 YOUR PORTFOLIO
| Ticker | Action | Conviction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | HOLD | 8/10 | +481% unrealized. Foundational long-horizon hold. New AAPL ATH this week confirms thesis. |
| GOOGL | STRONG HOLD | 9/10 | +25% gain. Core position. AI search transition and YouTube/Cloud momentum intact. |
| MKL | HOLD | 7/10 | +99.5% unrealized. Specialty insurance compounding case still intact despite recent revenue softness. |
| FSLR | HOLD | 8/10 | +18% gain; stock +33% on the month. Domestic solar manufacturing tailwind playing out. |
| BABA | HOLD | 8/10 | +9.5%. China AI optionality (Zhenwu M890 chip news) remains a free option on top of cheap valuation. |
| UNH | HOLD | 6/10 | +20.9% from cost; +27.7% off the lows. Turnaround thesis playing out faster than expected — watching for re-rating saturation. |
| TSLA | HOLD | 5/10 | +2.2%. 350x earnings is a valuation problem; flipped from trim to hold on price action, not fundamentals. |
| ISRG | HOLD | 7/10 | -22% unrealized. Thesis intact, position is painful but da Vinci 5 ramp and recurring revenue still compelling. |
| AVAV, AVGO, MP, SYM | PENDING ANALYSIS | — | Hold analyses to be built next run. |
⚠️ WATCH LIST
🔁 RE-REVIEW QUEUE
Eight names hit their re-review window today. All were dropped because conviction 6/10 was insufficient to defend a spot when higher-conviction ideas displaced them — none were dropped for thesis failure.
To run a fresh dive on any of these, ask Meridian in the chat.