🧭 MACRO SNAPSHOT

The setup into Fed week is unusually loaded. Fed funds sits at 3.63% (FRED), the 10Y at 4.48% and 2Y at 4.09% — a positive but flattish slope that is now being challenged by a real debate about whether Chair Warsh delivers a hike this week to address what the Motley Fool/Yahoo crew are calling "Trumpflation." CPI YoY data in the macro feed is clearly corrupted (333.979 is an index reading, not a rate), but the directional signal from the All-In crew and prediction markets is consistent: inflation has reaccelerated to 3-year highs on both CPI and PPI prints, and the market is no longer pricing cuts as a base case. That matters for every high-multiple name on our list — $NVDA, $AVGO, $ANET, $TSM, $NOW — where duration risk is the dominant exposure.

The offsetting tailwind today is geopolitical: a US-Iran deal headline has crude falling and equities bid, with the S&P at 7,554 and VIX a benign 17.68. HY credit spreads at 271 bps remain tight — credit is not yet flashing stress. Net: risk-on tape into a Fed meeting where the consensus is for a hold but the tails are getting fatter on the hawkish side. I would not chase strength into Wednesday. Energy-adjacent names ($UUUU, $FCX, $MP) are likely to see near-term pressure from oil weakness; defense/space names ($RKLB, $AVAV) lose a geopolitical bid.

₿ BITCOIN DAILY WRITE-UP

Price & Market Structure: BTC trades at $66,360, +0.33% on the day and +5.86% on the week, but still -15.18% on the month and roughly -47.5% from the $126,080 ATH. The bounce off the recent $63K low looks like a near-term capitulation reaction to the Iran ceasefire and Strategy's $100M buy (Bitcoin Magazine, 6/14). BTC dominance at 56.4% remains elevated — capital is consolidating into BTC rather than rotating into alts, which is historically a mid-bear behavior, not a fresh bull signal.

Structural Thesis: We own BTC as a long-duration call option on monetary debasement and continued institutional rail buildout. The supply side is mechanically constrained (post-halving issuance of 3.125 BTC/block, 95.4% of supply mined), and demand-side infrastructure (ETFs, bank custody, regulated trust banks) continues to deepen during the drawdown — which is structurally different from prior bear cycles where institutions retreated.

What Happened This Week: Two genuinely structural data points: (1) BitGo joined the Fortune 500 with $16.2B revenue as a federally chartered OCC trust bank — this is regulated Bitcoin infrastructure crossing a real threshold of mainstream legitimacy (Bitcoin Magazine, 6/14); (2) T. Rowe Price ($1.9T AUM) launched a crypto ETF, continuing the mainstream asset-manager onboarding pattern. Offsetting: quantum-risk discussion has moved from theoretical fringe to mainstream banking custodian discourse (CryptoSlate, 6/14) — not a near-term threat but worth tracking.

Bull / Bear Scorecard:
- 🟢 Halving supply shock still working through; 95.4% of supply mined while institutional demand rails deepen
- 🟢 BitGo Fortune 500 + T. Rowe ETF entry = institutional infrastructure built during a 47% drawdown, structurally unprecedented
- 🟢 Iran ceasefire + Strategy $100M buy + dominance at 56.4% = capital still believes in BTC as the senior crypto asset
- 🔴 Cycle may have already peaked at $126K within the typical month 12–18 post-halving window; -47.5% drawdown could be only partway through a historical 70–85% bear
- 🔴 Coinbase Custody concentration risk surfaced via GameStop SEC filing — institutional adoption has created new single points of failure
- 🔴 Hawkish Fed risk this week is a direct headwind; BTC remains highly sensitive to real yields

Conviction Check: Action: HOLD | Conviction: 5/10. Unchanged. The bounce is welcome but does not change the structural picture — we are mid-cycle, not in a fresh leg up.

What to Watch: (1) Spot BTC ETF net flows — sustained 30+ day net inflows during this drawdown would be the strongest possible bullish signal; sustained outflows would break the institutional thesis; (2) Real yields (DFII10) direction post-FOMC — a hawkish Warsh surprise would pressure BTC hard; (3) Whether dominance stays >55% — falling dominance with BTC also falling would signal broad crypto exit.

Community Pulse: The Bitcoin Layer is leaning into a "never-ending bear market" frame with Checkonchain, while simultaneously publishing liquidity-indicator work suggesting TBL's framework is outperforming raw BTC exposure — the sophisticated end of the community is hedged and cautious, not euphoric. Bitcoin Magazine is more upbeat, leading with the Iran ceasefire bounce and Strategy's continued accumulation. Net sentiment: cautiously constructive but no one is calling a bottom with conviction. The dominant debate is whether the $126K ATH was the cycle high — and that debate itself tells you we are not in a euphoric phase.

🔬 TODAY'S DEEP DIVES

No new ideas were screened today and no rolling deep review is queued. The target list is still being built toward its 50-name cap, and rather than force a low-quality initiation, I am holding the slot. We will redirect today's research bandwidth to the re-review queue below — there are eight previously-dropped names whose review windows have arrived, and at least two of them ($CEG, $TTD) deserve a fresh look given how the macro and AI infrastructure narratives have evolved.

📋 TARGET LIST STATUS

No conviction changes vs. last week beyond the five 50-day rolling reaffirms ($FTNT, $PGNY, $CARR, $PDD, $MELI — all reaffirmed at 5/10). No names added or dropped today. $ANET is the standout mover (+11% week, 1.6T launch driving the AI fabric narrative) — I am watching for a conviction upgrade trigger if the AI networking story holds through Fed week.

💼 YOUR PORTFOLIO

• $AAPL | HOLD | 6/10 — Post-WWDC AI reveal disappointed; stock pulled back to $295. The Siri reveal underwhelmed but the installed-base thesis is intact. Holding, not adding.
• $AVAV | HOLD | 5/10 — Down 10% in a week with new securities fraud litigation overhang. Iran ceasefire removes a geopolitical bid. Watching for clarity on the lawsuit before any move.
• $AVGO | BUY MORE | 9/10 — Down ~8% on the broader semi pullback; $35B AI infrastructure platform plan affirms the custom silicon + networking thesis. Highest-conviction tech name. Add on weakness.
• $BABA | STRONG HOLD | 8/10 — Down another 10.5% to $112.69, now 41.5% off the high. Noah Smith's "China zombification" piece is the dominant bear narrative; I am not yet capitulating but acknowledging the sentiment is brutal.
• $FSLR | HOLD | 7/10 — Down 14% in a week to $271. Solar names are getting hit by rate fears. Thesis intact; not adding into Fed week.
• $GOOGL | STRONG HOLD | 9/10 (note: hold conviction shown as 5/10 in feed appears stale — operative read is 9/10 per body) — Intel TPU order for 3M+ units in 2028 and Waymo subscription monetization both validate the platform thesis. Holding the full position.
• $ISRG | BUY MORE | 8/10 — Bouncing along the 52-week low at $412.90. Surgical robotics secular case is intact and the entry point is attractive. Adding.
• $MKL | HOLD | 7/10 — Modest recovery to $1,830. No new fundamental data. Holding.
• $MP | HOLD | 7/10 — Down to $57.18 from $65.46. Only Western Hemisphere vertically-integrated rare earths operator — strategic asset thesis unchanged.
• $SYM | HOLD | 6/10 — Down 9.7% to $42.83. Warehouse automation thesis intact but execution has been choppy. Not adding here.
• $TSLA | HOLD | 5/10 — Robotaxi Austin rollout offset by SpaceX IPO overhang (Gary Black flagging Tesla selling pressure as investors source SpaceX dry powder). Holding, not adding.
• $UNH | STRONG HOLD | 7/10 — Within 2.5% of 52-week high at $405.55 after a violent +27.7% monthly rally off the lows. Mizuho catalyst working. Holding into earnings.

⚠️ WATCH LIST

• $ANET — Up 19% in a month on the 1.6T AI fabric launch. Trigger for upgrade to 8/10: confirmation that hyperscaler design wins are translating to 2H26 backlog. Watching next earnings.
• $BABA — Now -14.3% on the month. Trigger for downgrade to 5/10: another negative earnings revision or a clear China deflation signal would force the question of whether the value trap is real.
• $AVAV — Down 12.4% on the month with active securities class action. Trigger for downgrade to 4/10 (and removal from list): if the litigation expands or management disclosure issues emerge in 10-Q.
• $TSLA — SpaceX IPO this week is a real liquidity event. Trigger for further downgrade: if robotaxi Austin metrics disappoint or if Musk does merge SpaceX/Tesla (per crypto prediction markets), governance complexity gets worse.

🔁 RE-REVIEW QUEUE

Eight previously-abandoned names hit their re-review window today. Highlighted candidates:

• $CEG | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-13 — Dropped as utilities re-rating peaked. Conditions may have changed: data center power demand and the AI-nationalization debate (per All-In) are putting nuclear-exposed IPPs back in focus. Worth a fresh look.
• $DDOG | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Dropped on AI-observability margin compression concerns. Conditions: if Anthropic credibility damage and "alignment not on track" themes drive enterprise AI monitoring spend, observability becomes more not less valuable.
• $TTD | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Dropped on CTV competitive concerns. Conditions: Fox/Roku deal materially reshapes the CTV landscape — TTD's independent DSP positioning may actually be more valuable now.
• $BWXT | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-13 — Nuclear-defense play. Conditions: nuclear renaissance + defense spending tailwinds continue; worth re-examining.
• $NET | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Edge/security. Conditions: minimal change in thesis; lower priority.
• $KTOS | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-13 — Defense drones. Conditions: Iran ceasefire removes near-term bid; lower priority.
• $CRWD | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-08 — Cybersecurity. Conditions: PANW strength suggests sector is alive; worth a comparative look.
• $NTRA | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-09 — Genetic testing. Conditions: minimal change; lower priority.

To run a fresh dive on any of these, ask Meridian in the chat.