🧭 MACRO SNAPSHOT

The macro backdrop is benign-to-supportive for long-duration equity holders: Fed Funds at 3.63%, 10Y at 4.49%, 2Y at 4.20% (a normalized but flat-to-slightly-positive curve at +29bps), HY credit spreads at 263bps (well inside historical stress levels), VIX at 18.4, and the S&P at 7,500. Unemployment 4.3% with real GDP growth at 1.6% suggests a late-cycle-but-not-recessionary economy. Kevin Warsh's commentary about wanting markets to guide the Fed (Yahoo Finance) is the kind of signal that matters for 2027 Fed leadership probabilities — worth filing but not actionable today.

What matters for the portfolio: (1) the Apple/Intel partnership announcement (Fox Business) is a direct read-through for $AAPL and a potential reset for $INTC's foundry narrative; (2) the ASML/China export-control dispute (TechCrunch) keeps the semi-equipment policy overhang live and is incrementally relevant to $TSM and $NVDA; (3) the FERC's growing involvement in data center grid connections (Politico) reinforces the power-for-AI thesis underpinning $VST, $GEV, and $CEG (on the re-review queue); (4) the US-Iran peace framework, if durable, is a modest headwind to defense names ($AVAV, $TDG) and to oil — but the "1 billion barrels missing" CNN story is a reminder that oil inventory data is noisier than the tape suggests. Net: risk-on with policy crosscurrents. Stay focused on names where the thesis doesn't depend on macro tailwinds.

₿ BITCOIN DAILY WRITE-UP

Price & Market Structure
BTC is $63,687, +1.77% on the day, ~flat on the week, and -17.46% on the month. We sit roughly 49% below the $126K ATH set ~14 months post-halving. BTC dominance at 56.1% indicates capital is still consolidating into BTC versus alts — historically a late-bear-cycle signature.

Structural Thesis
The core long-horizon case is unchanged: post-halving supply constraint (3.125 BTC block reward, ~95.4% of supply mined) is colliding with a still-deepening institutional rail buildout (bank custody, T. Rowe Price ETF entry, sovereign accumulation discussions). The asymmetry of constrained new issuance against persistent institutional onboarding remains the bull case, even when price doesn't reflect it.

What Happened This Week
Nothing structurally bullish — but importantly, nothing structurally broken either. JPMorgan flagged that mining economics have deteriorated, with BTC trading ~19% below estimated production cost (Bitcoin Magazine) — this is historically a late-cycle capitulation signal. The All-In pod referenced Illinois moving to tax Bitcoin, which is the kind of state-level regulatory creep worth monitoring but not yet thesis-changing. Strategy (MSTR) discussion about whether its treasury position needs to unwind for BTC to recover is the more important market-structure question this week (The Bitcoin Layer).

Bull / Bear Scorecard

Bull:
- Halving supply shock still working through; institutional demand infrastructure deepening (T. Rowe Price, bank vaults) during a 47% drawdown — unprecedented relative to prior bear cycles
- BTC trading below production cost has historically marked durable bottoms
- BTC dominance at 56% signals capital flight-to-quality within crypto, not flight-from-crypto

Bear:
- Cycle may have already peaked at $126K; historical analogs suggest 12–18 months of further consolidation and potential retest of $40–55K
- Custody concentration risk (Coinbase Custody / GameStop SEC filing) is a real institutional single-point-of-failure
- Quantum risk now in mainstream banking custodian discourse — not near-term, but no longer dismissible

Conviction Check: Action: HOLD | Conviction: 5/10. Unchanged. The structural thesis is intact; the cycle position is uncertain. Patient sizing, no chasing.

What to Watch
- Spot BTC ETF 30-day net flow trend — sustained inflows during this drawdown would be the strongest possible structural signal
- Real yields (DFII10) and DXY direction — a real-yield roll-over is historically the biggest macro catalyst for BTC
- Strategy (MSTR) treasury behavior — forced unwind risk would be a major near-term overhang

Community Pulse
Reddit was quiet (Saturday). The Bitcoin Layer newsletter is focused on whether the next confirming bullish signal ("green dot") is imminent and is actively defending the view that Strategy doesn't need to unwind for BTC to recover — that's a tell that the unwind-risk narrative has gone mainstream enough to require rebuttal. Bitcoin Magazine highlighting JPMorgan's "mining costs worsened" framing is the dominant sentiment marker: institutional commentators are now openly discussing capitulation conditions, which is historically late-bear behavior, not early-bear.

🔬 TODAY'S DEEP DIVES

No new ideas were screened today and no rolling review was queued. Rather than fabricate content, I'll flag what this means: the screening pipeline didn't surface a candidate that cleared our minimum bar to displace a name on the 50-list, and the deep-review rotation is still being built out. This is fine — forcing a "deep dive" on a sub-threshold idea is exactly the kind of analytical hygiene failure we avoid.

Where I'd direct attention instead today:

1. $SPCX (SpaceX) — INITIATION CANDIDATE — The IPO is the most important new equity to develop a view on. I have no thesis on file. Before Monday, I want to understand: (a) what percentage of revenue is Starlink vs. launch vs. defense contracts, (b) the Cursor acquisition rationale ($60B is a lot of money for a code editor — this is either a brilliant vertical integration of AI-native engineering tooling or a vanity acquisition), (c) governance structure given Musk's dual role with $TSLA, and (d) the float and lockup mechanics. Status: deep dive queued for next session.

2. $ANTH-adjacent exposure (private) — The White House's move against Anthropic's "Mythos/Fable" deployment (Bloomberg) is a regulatory inflection for the entire enterprise AI category. Read-throughs: $AMZN (Anthropic's largest investor and reportedly the party that flagged the issue to officials), $MSFT (relative beneficiary if Anthropic gets boxed in), and downstream model consumers. This isn't a deep dive — it's a watch item that affects our existing AI exposure.

3. $INTC re-examination triggered by Apple partnership — Fox Business reporting that Apple will work with Intel on US chip design and production is the kind of news that, if substantiated beyond a Trump-quote headline, materially changes the Intel foundry thesis. I have no current thesis on $INTC. Status: monitor for confirmation before initiating.

📋 TARGET LIST STATUS

Conviction changes this week: $GEV moved up notably in price (+18% 1W) on the Wolfe coverage initiation and continued data-center power narrative — conviction held at 6/10 pending Q2 print; I'm resisting chasing the move. $VST also +10.6% 1W on the $10B KKR-backed AI infrastructure deal — same discipline applies. $BABA continues to bleed (-19.6% 1M) and is approaching a level where the question is whether to upgrade to RECOMMEND on valuation alone. No names dropped or added today.

💼 YOUR PORTFOLIO

• $AAPL | HOLD | 6/10 — The Intel partnership headline (Fox Business) is intriguing but unverified at the substance level; thesis remains margin pressure vs. AI-product disappointment offset by ecosystem stickiness. Don't add here.
• $AVAV | HOLD | 4/10 — Stock now within 9% of 52-week low with active securities fraud litigation overhang. Thesis is impaired but not broken. No add, no trim — wait for litigation clarity.
• $AVGO | STRONG HOLD | 9/10 — +6.7% in a week with thesis fully intact. Citi reiterated as top chip pick. Highest-conviction position in the book; keep.
• $BABA | STRONG HOLD | 7/10 — Down to $107, ~3% above 52W low. Pain in the position but the structural thesis (Chinese cloud/AI leader at distressed multiple) is unbroken. Hold; don't average down until China policy stabilizes.
• $FSLR | BUY MORE | 8/10 — -5% in a week on noise; +79.4% over 1Y. Domestic-content tailwind intact. Add on weakness.
• $GOOGL | STRONG HOLD | 8/10 — Recently upgraded from 5/10 to 8/10 on Alabama data center expansion and Gemini momentum. Hold; the re-rating is in progress.
• $ISRG | BUY MORE | 8/10 — Trading ~$10 above 52W low at $406.78. The de-rating creates the entry. Continue accumulating.
• $MKL | HOLD | 7/10 — Marginal price drift; thesis unchanged. No action.
• $MP | STRONG HOLD | 8/10 — $60.88, +6.5% since last review. The Pentagon $725M Energy Fuels deal validates the broader rare-earth thesis. Hold.
• $SYM | HOLD | 6/10 — Quiet. Thesis intact but no new datapoints. Hold.
• $TSLA | HOLD | 5/10 — Ross Gerber's "no one is talking about Tesla anymore" line (post-SPCX IPO) is exactly the kind of sentiment exhaustion that creates entries — but fundamentals haven't turned yet. Hold.
• $UNH | STRONG HOLD | 7/10 — Up 27.7% in a month and recovered to near-52W highs. The re-rating is largely done; let it work.

⚠️ WATCH LIST

• $BABA — Down 19.6% on the month, now trading near 52W low. If the next earnings print shows cloud/AI revenue acceleration, this becomes an upgrade candidate to RECOMMEND. Trigger: cloud revenue growth >18% YoY.
• $GEV / $VST — Both ripped this week on AI-power narratives. The risk is buying the headline. Trigger for upgrade: Q2 earnings beat + raised guidance. Trigger for staying patient: any sign the data center power thesis is being front-run by retail.
• $AVAV — Within 9% of 52W low with class action overhang. If the litigation clarifies or settles at manageable cost AND Iran de-escalation holds, the bear case could be priced in. Trigger: litigation resolution.
• $AAPL — The Intel partnership story needs verification. If substantiated, it materially changes both the $AAPL margin trajectory and the $INTC foundry thesis. Trigger: 8-K filing or formal joint announcement.

🔁 RE-REVIEW QUEUE

Eight names from the abandoned watch list have hit their re-review window today. Two are notably more relevant than when dropped given current narratives:

• $CEG | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-13 — Dropped on conviction-threshold displacement. Conditions changed: the FERC data-center connection fight (Politico today) and the KKR-backed $10B AI infrastructure venture announcement around $VST both elevate the nuclear-IPP thesis. Worth a fresh dive.
• $BWXT | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Nuclear small-modular-reactor and naval propulsion play. Same data-center power tailwind as $CEG, plus rare-earth/defense crossover. Worth revisiting.
• $KTOS | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-13 — Defense (drones, satellites). Iran peace MOU is a near-term headwind but the structural defense-tech tailwind persists. Lower priority given the geopolitical shift.
• $DDOG | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Observability/AI-monitoring. Enterprise AI deployment scale-up should be a tailwind. Worth a refresh.
• $NET | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Cloudflare. AI-inference-at-edge narrative still developing. Lower urgency.
• $CRWD | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Cybersecurity. Cyber threat backdrop persists; AI-cyber arms race accelerating (Twenty Inc. $1B valuation raise). Worth refresh.
• $TTD | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Adtech. No specific catalyst; lower priority.
• $NTRA | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-09 — Genetic testing. No specific catalyst; lower priority.

Top priorities for fresh dive: $CEG, $BWXT, $DDOG.

To run a fresh dive on any of these, ask Meridian in the chat.