🧭 MACRO SNAPSHOT

The macro setup is benign on paper but the tape is doing real work under the surface. Fed funds at 3.63%, 10Y at 4.50%, 2Y at 4.16% (FRED) — the curve is positive but flat, and HY credit spreads at 271 bps remain tight, which tells us the credit market is not stressed even as equities chop. GDP growth at 1.6% and unemployment at 4.3% (FRED) paint a soft-landing-but-decelerating picture. VIX at 19.49 is elevated relative to last month's complacency but not panicked. The CPI print of 333.979 (index level, not YoY) is the headline data point — what matters is that the disinflation story remains the implicit anchor for the Fed's current stance.

Sector-wise, the overnight story is the $1.3T AI complex rout (Bloomberg) and Cerebras's brutal first post-IPO print (Barron's). Tech is set to bounce today, but the message is that the market is finally starting to discriminate within AI rather than buying the basket. That's healthy and it's exactly the environment where our differentiated AI infrastructure names ($AVGO, $TSM, $ANET) should outperform pure-narrative plays. Brent below $76 (CNBC) — lowest since the U.S.-Iran flare-up — removes an inflation tailwind and pressures energy capex names. Watch $FSLR and $VST for any read-through on power demand assumptions.

₿ BITCOIN DAILY WRITE-UP

Price & Market Structure: BTC at $61,181, down 2.65% on the day, -4.64% on the week, and -20.11% on the month. We are now 51.5% off the $126,080 ATH — squarely in cyclical bear territory by historical standards. Dominance at 56.1% suggests this is broad-based crypto weakness, not BTC-specific.

Structural Thesis: We hold Bitcoin as a long-duration option on monetary debasement and a permanent institutional asset class, supported by the spot ETF channel and post-halving supply scarcity. The fundamental reason to hold is asymmetric — the downside is bounded by network value floors, while the upside scenarios (sovereign adoption, sustained ETF flows, monetary regime change) remain intact even when price is weak.

What Happened This Week: Two material structural negatives. First, Bitcoin Magazine flagged a price collapse below $60K with ETF outflows accelerating and CryptoQuant publicly urging Strategy (MSTR) to halt purchases — MSTR is at a two-year low. Second, The Bitcoin Layer's dynamic trend levels reset DOWN toward $70K, meaning the technical reclaim threshold is falling with price. This is the opposite of what we want to see in a healthy post-halving cycle.

Bull / Bear Scorecard:
- Bull: Halving supply impulse intact — 450 BTC/day issuance vs. $17.8B daily volume is structurally trivial sell-side
- Bull: ETF distribution rails are permanent; channel doesn't un-build even during outflow periods
- Bull: Regulatory backdrop remains constructive vs. 2022 cycle bear

• Bear: Cycle may have peaked at $126K — we're potentially 8 months into a 70-85% bear drawdown (2018: -84%, 2022: -77%)
• Bear: $10B digital credit margin calls (CryptoSlate) = real structural deleveraging, not just price noise
• Bear: BTC has not behaved as geopolitical hedge in current Israel-Lebanon / China-Taiwan tensions

Conviction Check: Action: HOLD | Conviction: 4/10. Unchanged from last review — the structural case isn't broken, but the cycle pattern is clearly underperforming, and I want to see either an ETF flow inflection or a clean reclaim of $70K before adding.

What to Watch:
- Sustained ETF net outflows >30 days = confirmation of institutional distribution
- Hash rate decline >15% = miner capitulation signal
- Long-term holder supply behavior — distribution acceleration would be the cycle-top confirmation

Community Pulse: Reddit was silent across all crypto channels today — itself a sentiment signal (capitulation tends to look like silence, not screaming). The newsletter signal is unambiguously bearish: Bitcoin Magazine headlining "the worst may not be over" and flagging MSTR's two-year low; The Bitcoin Layer noting trend levels are coming DOWN toward $70K rather than holding. There's no debate in the community right now — the bull camp has gone quiet and the bear case is in possession of the narrative. That's typically late-stage bearish but not yet capitulation.

🔬 TODAY'S DEEP DIVES

No new ideas were screened today and no rolling review was scheduled. The pipeline note above confirms this explicitly. Rather than fabricate filler, I'd rather use the space honestly: today is a day to digest the AI selloff and watch how our existing names react, not to chase new ideas into a tape that's still finding its footing.

If you want me to run a fresh deep dive on any of the abandoned-watch names due for re-review today (see below), or initiate on something specific you're hearing about, just ask in the chat.

📋 TARGET LIST STATUS

Changes vs. last week: $MELI was dropped — conviction had drifted to 5/10 and no longer earned a slot. $APLD added at 5/10 conviction via on-demand chat dive. No other movements. I'd flag that $RKLB (-20.9% week) and $BABA (-7.11% week, -22.21% month) are both approaching the conviction threshold where I'd consider further downgrade — see watch list.

💼 YOUR PORTFOLIO

• $AAPL | HOLD | 6/10 — Modest recovery post-WWDC26. Bull case is the install-base annuity; bear case is AI strategy still looks reactive. Insider selling is a yellow flag.
• $AVAV | HOLD | 4/10 — Down 7.7% since last check, within 9% of 52W low, class-action overhang. Conviction continues to deteriorate; would not add.
• $AVGO | STRONG HOLD | 9/10 — +6.68% in a week, thesis reinforced. Custom XPU/XPV platform story is exactly the differentiated AI infra play I want owning during the rout.
• $BABA | STRONG HOLD | 7/10 — Down to $107, ~3% above 52W low. Painful, but valuation now genuinely cheap and AI capex is real. Stay the course.
• $FSLR | BUY MORE | 8/10 — Down 5% in a week but Mizuho raised target, 1Y still +79%. The "First Solar dirt cheap amid AI boom" framing (power demand) is the right one.
• $GOOGL | HOLD | 5/10 — Upgraded internally to Strong Hold (8/10) on recovery and Dow inclusion catalyst. Cloud + enterprise AI case strengthening.
• $ISRG | BUY MORE | 8/10 — Just $10 above 52W low. Long-horizon surgical robotics story intact; this is a gift if you have dry powder.
• $MKL | HOLD | 7/10 — Marginal drift. Two recent 8-Ks worth a read but no thesis change.
• $MP | STRONG HOLD | 8/10 — $60.88, up from $57.18. Rare earth narrative + only Western operational mine = sovereign-importance moat.
• $SYM | HOLD | 6/10 — Drifting at $41.68. Warehouse automation thesis intact but execution and disclosure quality continue to be issues.
• $TSLA | HOLD | 5/10 — Texas FSD lawsuit (NBC) and Ross Gerber's Waymo comments add to the narrative weight against FSD. Megapod trademark is interesting optionality.
• $UNH | STRONG HOLD | 7/10 — FTC insulin dispute resolution is a real positive. Stock now ~3.6% from 52W high after 27.7% one-month rally. Trim consideration if it pushes through $415.

⚠️ WATCH LIST

• $RKLB (target list, MONITORING 5/10): -40% in a month after SpaceX IPO. The VICTUS HAZE 16-hour responsive launch is a genuine moat data point, but valuation reset is brutal. Trigger to act: a quarter of operating cash flow inflection OR sub-$100 entry would justify a fresh deep dive.
• $AVAV (portfolio HOLD 4/10): Securities fraud class action + $89M write-down is now material. Trigger to sell: any guidance cut on next print, OR sustained break of 52W low ($156).
• $BABA (portfolio STRONG HOLD 7/10): Approaching 52W low. Trigger to upgrade conviction: Q1 cloud/AI revenue acceleration on next print. Trigger to downgrade: any new VIE structure or delisting headline.
• $UNH (portfolio STRONG HOLD 7/10): Up 27.7% in a month — getting close to where I'd consider trimming. Trigger: push through $415 with no fundamental catalyst = trim 25%.

🔁 RE-REVIEW QUEUE

Eight names from the abandoned watch are due for fresh review windows. Quick context on each:

• $CEG | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-13 — Dropped on conviction threshold; the power/nuclear AI demand thesis has only strengthened since (see $VST, $GEV action). Worth a fresh look.
• $DDOG | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Dropped on threshold; observability is structurally well-positioned in AI workloads but valuation has been an issue. Worth re-screening after the tech rout.
• $TTD | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Dropped on threshold; CTV / programmatic story intact but Google antitrust dynamics and Amazon DSP competition warrant a fresh take.
• $BWXT | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Naval nuclear + SMR thesis has strengthened with the nuclear comeback narrative ($UUUU news flow). Strong candidate for re-review.
• $NET | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Cloudflare's edge AI inference positioning may be more relevant now that vibe coding / agentic workloads are real (per Stratechery). Worth refreshing.
• $KTOS | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-13 — Defense drone/hypersonics story; with $AVAV deteriorating, $KTOS may be the better pure-play to own here.
• $CRWD | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-08 — Cybersec valuation has compressed; OpenAI's Daybreak/cyber expansion (per PANW news) is changing the competitive landscape. Refresh warranted.
• $NTRA | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-09 — Genomic testing; no major catalyst flagged but window is open.

To run a fresh dive on any of these, ask Meridian in the chat.