🧭 MACRO SNAPSHOT

The setup this morning is constructive but with structural cracks worth flagging. Fed funds at 3.63% (FRED), 10Y at 4.49%, 2Y at 4.20% — the curve is positively sloped by ~29bp, which is a healthier signal than we've had for most of the last 24 months. HY credit spreads at 263bp (FRED) are tight, VIX at 18.4 is benign, and the S&P at 7,500 reflects a market that has absorbed both the Iran conflict and the post-conflict de-escalation. The CNBC piece on Kevin Warsh "remaking the Fed" in a "velvet glove" is the macro story to track — a regime change in monetary policy framework, even a gentle one, is the kind of thing the market under-prices until it doesn't. Watch for any signal that Warsh's Fed tilts more rules-based or more dovish than current pricing implies.

Two cross-currents matter for the book: (1) the All-In MOU/de-escalation narrative around Iran is a risk-on tailwind for equities and energy normalization — partially explains $GEV +18% on the week and the broader risk-on tape; (2) the Business Insider household debt piece is the bear flag — at 1.6% real GDP growth and 4.3% unemployment, we're closer to late-cycle than mid-cycle, and consumer-credit-exposed names ($AFRM, BNPL, autos) bear watching. Net: I'm leaning into quality compounders and infrastructure beneficiaries, not consumer discretionary cyclicals.

₿ BITCOIN DAILY WRITE-UP

Price & Market Structure: BTC at $64,547, +0.53% on the day but -1.99% on the week and -13.47% on the month. We remain ~49% below the $126K ATH and ~38% below year-ago levels. This is now firmly inconsistent with the historical post-halving bull pattern — we're 14 months past the April 2024 halving, which in 2013/2017/2021 was the heart of the parabolic phase.

Structural Thesis: Hold Bitcoin as a small, asymmetric position based on (a) the intact supply schedule (450 BTC/day issuance is trivial vs. $17.8B daily volume), (b) the permanence of the spot ETF distribution channel built in 2024, and (c) a constructive U.S. regulatory posture. This is a structural call, not a cycle-timing call — and right now the structural case is being stress-tested.

What Happened This Week: Two materially negative data points. First, the CryptoSlate report of $10B in margin calls in the "digital credit" yield trade — this is deleveraging, not noise. Second, JPMorgan flagging that BTC is trading ~19% below estimated production cost, which historically precedes miner stress and forced selling. The Bitcoin Layer's "When Does The Next Green Dot Confirm?" piece captures the moment — even bullish analysts are now framing this as "waiting for confirmation," not riding a trend.

Bull / Bear Scorecard:
- 🟢 Halving supply shock structurally intact; daily issuance is a rounding error against volume
- 🟢 Spot ETF channel is a one-way ratchet — RIA/institutional access doesn't un-build
- 🟢 U.S. regulatory backdrop continues to improve; Kalshi's $2B revenue and IPO chatter is a leading indicator of crypto-adjacent legitimacy
- 🔴 -49% from ATH is consistent with the early-to-mid phase of a typical 70-85% bear (2018: -84%; 2022: -77%)
- 🔴 BTC trading below miner production cost — historically precedes capitulation, not bottoms
- 🔴 Geopolitical risk has NOT made BTC a hedge in 2026 — the "digital gold" narrative is failing in real time

Conviction Check: Action: HOLD | Conviction: 4/10. Unchanged from last review. The structural case is intact; the cyclical case is broken. That combination justifies holding the position but not adding.

What to Watch: (1) Sustained ETF net outflows >30 days would shift the demand picture from neutral to actively negative; (2) Hash rate decline >15% would confirm miner capitulation — historically a late-stage bottom signal; (3) Long-term holder supply behavior — if LTH cohorts begin distributing, the cycle-low thesis weakens further.

Community Pulse: Reddit was silent over the weekend (unusual but seasonal), so the signal comes from newsletters. The Bitcoin Layer is publishing measured, technical pieces — "Strategy Doesn't Have to Unwind for Bitcoin to Recover" is a tell that the community is now actively defending against unwind scenarios rather than celebrating new highs. Sentiment is fearful-but-not-capitulatory; this is the "denial-to-acceptance" phase of a bear cycle, not the bottom.

🔬 TODAY'S DEEP DIVES

No new ideas were screened this morning and no rolling review is queued. The pipeline is intentionally quiet — I will not force a deep dive without a real catalyst or screen hit. Tomorrow's screen will prioritize the SpaceX IPO (per All-In Pod reporting) as a candidate for fresh evaluation, alongside the All-In-flagged Anthropic situation for any public-market read-throughs ($AMZN, $GOOG).

📋 TARGET LIST STATUS

No conviction changes today. $GEV +18% in a week is the standout move and warrants a fresh review next cycle — the "electricity is the AI bottleneck" thesis is getting consensus, which historically means we're closer to the consensus trade than to the contrarian one. $BABA continues to bleed (-19.6% MoM) — closing in on a downgrade trigger if no fundamental catalyst emerges.

💼 YOUR PORTFOLIO

• $AAPL | HOLD | 6/10 — Modest recovery to $298. WWDC26 received mixed reception; insider selling continues. Stratechery's framing of the EU/Apple Intelligence standoff is the more important medium-term story — pricing power intact in U.S., regulatory fragmentation real abroad.
• $AVAV | HOLD | 4/10 — Down to $169.61, within 9% of 52W low. Multiple class actions filed. Conviction continues to deteriorate; if next print doesn't materially improve, this becomes a SELL candidate.
• $AVGO | STRONG HOLD | 9/10 — Up 6.7% in a week to $411. Thesis intact and reinforced. Still the cleanest custom-silicon + networking AI play in the book.
• $BABA | STRONG HOLD | 7/10 — At $107, ~3% above 52W low. Painful but the thesis (asymmetric upside, cash-rich balance sheet, structural China tech recovery optionality) is intact. Not adding here but not selling.
• $FSLR | BUY MORE | 8/10 — $257.70. Pullback is opportunity. Policy backdrop and AI-electricity demand both favorable.
• $GOOGL | HOLD → upgraded to STRONG HOLD (8/10) per last review — Stock at $368, +112% YoY. "Google Takes Aim at Nvidia" headline (TPU pricing momentum) is the kind of underappreciated optionality the market eventually rewards.
• $ISRG | BUY MORE | 8/10 — $406.78. Trading $10 above 52W low. Best-in-class robotic surgery franchise at a multi-year valuation reset.
• $MKL | HOLD | 7/10 — Marginal drift; two recent 8-Ks worth flagging. Watching for fundamental clarity.
• $MP | STRONG HOLD | 8/10 — $60.88. Mountain Pass is irreplaceable infrastructure; the rare earths policy tailwind is real.
• $SYM | HOLD | 6/10 — $41.68. Thesis intact; awaiting catalyst.
• $TSLA | HOLD | 5/10 — $400. Cathie Wood adding, Cramer flagging meme dynamics around SpaceX, Musk exercising $110B in options. The signal-to-noise here remains low.
• $UNH | STRONG HOLD | 7/10 — $400.96, recovered most of its drawdown. Thesis playing out.

⚠️ WATCH LIST

• $GEV — +18% week, +8.4% month. Consensus is forming around the "electricity is the AI bottleneck" thesis. Watching for either a clean entry on pullback OR a valuation extension that pushes me to upgrade based on momentum/catalyst confirmation.
• $BABA — -19.6% MoM, now near 52W low. If next earnings doesn't show stabilizing cloud/AI revenue or capital return acceleration, conviction drops to 5/10 and the name falls off the list.
• $AVAV — Hold conviction at 4/10 with active class action overhang. Next earnings is the trigger — either thesis re-establishes or this becomes a SELL.
• $UUUU — +10% on week post $725M U.S. government loan commitment. The rare earths/critical materials policy story is accelerating. Watching for upgrade to RECOMMEND on confirmation that loan converts to actual production capacity.

🔁 RE-REVIEW QUEUE

Eight names previously dropped from the target list have hit their re-review window:

• $CEG | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-13 — Dropped on the 50-name list cleanup. Given the "electricity bottleneck for AI" narrative now mainstream ($VST, $GEV both moving on it), $CEG's nuclear baseload story may warrant a fresh look.
• $DDOG | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Dropped on conviction threshold. AI observability remains structurally important; worth re-screening if multiple has compressed.
• $TTD | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Dropped on conviction. Open internet ad-tech story has evolved; refresh worth considering.
• $BWXT | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Dropped on conviction. Small modular reactor narrative is increasingly tied to AI power thesis — could be reframed.
• $NET | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Dropped on conviction. Edge/AI inference angle increasingly relevant; refresh useful.
• $KTOS | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-13 — Dropped on conviction. Defense tech with AI exposure; relevant given the geopolitical backdrop.
• $CRWD | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-08 — Dropped on conviction. Anthropic/Fable national-security backdrop puts enterprise security back in focus.
• $NTRA | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-09 — Dropped on conviction. Diagnostics story largely unchanged; lowest priority for re-review.

To run a fresh dive on any of these, ask Meridian in the chat.