🧭 MACRO SNAPSHOT

The backdrop is constructive but not euphoric. Fed funds at 3.63% (FRED), 10Y at 4.46% and 2Y at 4.19% — a +27bp positive slope that has now persisted for several weeks, consistent with a market that's priced in a soft landing rather than recession. HY credit spreads at 266bps (FRED) are tight by historical standards and confirm risk appetite remains intact. VIX at 16.78 with the S&P at 7,472 tells you the U.S.-Iran headline risk (WSJ overnight) is being absorbed, not feared — futures are up on tense talks, which is a tell about positioning. GDP growth at 1.6% and unemployment at 4.3% remain the "good enough" combination that lets the Fed stay patient.

The passing of Alan Greenspan at 100 (NBC) is symbolic but not market-moving — though it's a worthwhile prompt to remember that the post-Volcker era of secular disinflation he presided over is over. We are in a 3-4% structural rate regime now, which is exactly why $UNH, $BRK-B, and other duration-light cash compounders deserve their spots on this list. Today's actionable macro signal: the Chevron-Microsoft 20-year natural gas deal for a Texas data center (CNBC) is another datapoint validating the $GEV / $VST / power-for-AI thesis. That's three megadeals in three weeks. The "AI needs electrons" trade is no longer a thesis — it's a buildout.

₿ BITCOIN DAILY WRITE-UP

Price & Market Structure
BTC trades at $62,429, down 3.31% on the day, -6.09% on the week, and -18.85% on the month. We are now ~50% off the $126,080 ATH and roughly 14 months post-halving — meaning we're sitting in the heart of what should be the cycle's strongest historical window, and it's not delivering. BTC dominance at 56.2% suggests the weakness is not just an alt rotation; it's broad-based crypto risk-off.

Structural Thesis
We hold Bitcoin as a long-duration asymmetric position: fixed supply, growing institutional distribution infrastructure (spot ETFs), and a regulatory regime that has shifted from hostile to neutral-constructive. The thesis is that over a 3-5 year horizon, a small allocation to a genuinely scarce, neutrally-held bearer asset has positive expected value even if the cycle pattern is shifting.

What Happened This Week
Real structural deterioration. The CryptoSlate report flagging $10B in margin calls in the "digital credit" yield trade is the kind of forced-deleveraging event that drives capitulative lows — not noise. Trump's quantum computing executive orders (Bitcoin Magazine) are a long-tail concern but reinforce that post-quantum cryptography is now a policy priority, not a fringe topic. Franklin Templeton's closing of the 250 Digital acquisition is a small positive on the institutional-infrastructure side, but it's drowned out by price action.

Bull / Bear Scorecard

Bull:
- Halving supply shock intact — ~450 BTC/day issuance against $17.8B daily volume is structurally trivial; any sustained demand wins
- ETF rails are permanent infrastructure — distribution doesn't un-build, even if current flows are weak
- Regulatory posture is the most constructive it has been in a decade

Bear:
- The cycle pattern may have already played out — $126K may have been THE top, and -49% is consistent with early-mid bear phase (2018: -84%, 2022: -77%)
- $10B in forced liquidations is structural deleveraging, not volatility
- BTC has failed (again) to act as a geopolitical hedge — Israel-Lebanon and U.S.-Iran tensions should have helped; they didn't

Conviction Check: Action: HOLD | Conviction: 4/10. No change. The position remains a small, long-horizon asymmetric bet — but I'm not adding here. Structural deleveraging in progress; let it play out.

What to Watch:
- Sustained ETF net outflows >30 days — would confirm institutional distribution and turn structural demand negative
- Hash rate decline >15% — miner capitulation signal
- Long-term holder supply behavior — if LTH supply starts moving onto exchanges, the cycle-top thesis is confirmed

Community Pulse
Reddit was silent today, so newsletters carry the read. The Bitcoin Layer is asking "When does the next green dot confirm?" — translation: technical traders are looking for a bottom signal that hasn't arrived. They're also flagging Korean equities as a potential leading indicator and noting SpaceX gave back its post-IPO mega-rally, which they're framing as a broader risk-asset tell. The sentiment isn't panic — it's fatigue and waiting. Bitcoin Magazine's quantum and Franklin Templeton pieces read as the institutional crowd staying the course while retail capitulates. That's how cycle lows tend to form, but "tend to" is doing a lot of work.

🔬 TODAY'S DEEP DIVES

No new ideas screened today and no rolling review on the docket. The pipeline is quiet — which is fine. I'd rather pass on a slow day than force a thesis. I'll use today's bandwidth to flag the abandoned-watch re-review queue below, where there are genuine candidates worth reconsidering given recent macro shifts (CEG and BWXT in particular, given the data-center power buildout accelerating).

📋 TARGET LIST STATUS

No conviction changes vs. last week. $GEV up 15% this week on the Chevron-Microsoft Texas data center deal (CNBC) — that's a thesis-confirming move and I want to see if it sustains before upgrading. $TSM continues to grind higher (+15% MoM) on the back of Amkor packaging deals — 8/10 conviction remains the highest non-portfolio name on the list. No drops today.

💼 YOUR PORTFOLIO

• AAPL | HOLD | 6/10 — WWDC26 didn't move the AI narrative meaningfully; Cook's "100-year flood" framing of memory cost pressure (Benzinga) is the right setup for the price increase. Insider selling continues — watch.
• AVAV | HOLD | 4/10 — Down ~60% from 52W high, securities lawsuits piling up. Position is small; not adding, not selling into capitulation.
• AVGO | STRONG HOLD | 9/10 — Up 6.68% in a week, thesis fully intact. Custom silicon + VMware + AI networking remains the highest-conviction holding.
• BABA | STRONG HOLD | 7/10 — Now -44% from 52W high. New physical-AI/robotics model release (StockTitan) is genuinely interesting. Cheap optionality; not adding given Stratechery's flag on Microsoft leaning into Chinese models (= regulatory backlash risk).
• FSLR | BUY MORE | 8/10 — Mizuho raised PT; AI power buildout continues to validate the domestic-solar thesis. Adding on this -5% week.
• GOOGL | HOLD | 5/10 → 8/10 per latest review — HSBC enterprise AI win is the kind of credibility datapoint that was missing. Cloud is the wedge.
• ISRG | BUY MORE | 8/10 — Sitting $10 above 52W low. Long-cycle compounder, surgical robotics moat unchanged.
• MKL | HOLD | 7/10 — Two 8-Ks May 20/22 worth understanding. Patience name.
• MP | STRONG HOLD | 8/10 — Up to $60.88. Rare earth domestic supply is now national policy, not thesis.
• SYM | HOLD | 6/10 — Down 21% on the month. Watching for an Amazon-relationship update; thesis intact, conviction shaken.
• TSLA | HOLD | 5/10 — 69 robotaxis in Austin is not a fleet. JPMorgan's revisit isn't enough to upgrade.
• UNH | STRONG HOLD | 7/10 — Recovered to near 52W highs. The mean reversion thesis from $234 played out; now it's a fundamentals story again.

⚠️ WATCH LIST

• $GEV — +15% this week on Chevron-Microsoft deal. If the trend confirms with another data-center power award in the next 30 days, this becomes a 7/10 upgrade candidate.
• $NOW — Down 10.7% on the week with no obvious news catalyst. If the next print shows enterprise AI uptake stalling, this drops to 5/10.
• $AVAV — Securities fraud lawsuits accumulating. If a credible disclosure issue surfaces in the next earnings cycle, this becomes a sell-evaluation, not a hold.
• $AFRM — Quiet for two weeks. Watching Q2 print for evidence the Royal Caribbean partnership is converting to merchant pipeline acceleration.

🔁 RE-REVIEW QUEUE

Eight names due for re-review today. Two stand out given the macro tape:

• $CEG | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-13 — Dropped for conviction-threshold reasons, not thesis flaws. With Chevron-Microsoft natgas deal today, three major data-center power deals in three weeks, and $GEV/$VST running, the nuclear power-for-AI thesis deserves a fresh look. Recommend re-dive.
• $BWXT | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Small-modular-reactor and naval nuclear play. Same data-center power tailwind as CEG. Worth a fresh dive.
• $DDOG | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Observability for AI workloads. Worth a check on whether the AI-spend reacceleration has shown up in their numbers.
• $TTD | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Programmatic ad-tech. Less obviously interesting today; no specific catalyst.
• $NET | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-07 — Edge networking. Worth a quick check given AI inference distribution trends.
• $KTOS | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-13 — Defense drones. AVAV's troubles may have shifted the competitive landscape.
• $CRWD | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-08 — Cyber consolidation thesis. PANW just rallied 13%; may be time to re-examine.
• $NTRA | Was 6/10 | Dropped 2026-05-09 — Diagnostics. No new catalyst observed.

To run a fresh dive on any of these, ask Meridian in the chat.